Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 1.979601 2.093966 2.214012 2.349858 2.499857 2.661046 2.848195
2025-08-31 1.812435 1.970663 2.144569 2.351478 2.593078 2.868992 3.211972
2025-09-07 1.712346 1.897069 2.106659 2.365113 2.679653 3.056102 3.550538
2025-09-14 1.611944 1.810143 2.040301 2.331808 2.698008 3.152820 3.777757
2025-09-21 1.528374 1.735051 1.979610 2.296271 2.704851 3.228804 3.978305
2025-09-28 1.453889 1.665240 1.919240 2.254255 2.696480 3.279591 4.144288
2025-10-05 1.423580 1.646818 1.919829 2.287596 2.786076 3.465468 4.518240
2025-10-12 1.397845 1.631906 1.922819 2.322554 2.878278 3.660641 4.928133
2025-10-19 1.371482 1.614304 1.920541 2.349037 2.958964 3.844521 5.343229
2025-10-26 1.332680 1.578633 1.892369 2.337686 2.983647 3.945438 5.633991
2025-11-02 1.296748 1.544982 1.864939 2.325133 3.004578 4.040761 5.926259
2025-11-09 1.258013 1.506033 1.828494 2.297466 3.000339 4.094626 6.149818
2025-11-16 1.221470 1.469242 1.794160 2.271992 2.999103 4.155401 6.400400
2025-11-23 1.196775 1.447363 1.779233 2.273607 3.039383 4.288289 6.813387
2025-11-30 1.177623 1.432103 1.772556 2.286512 3.097590 4.456478 7.329086
2025-12-07 1.145108 1.397520 1.737415 2.254987 3.081825 4.492214 7.565992
2025-12-14 1.113791 1.363623 1.702015 2.221332 3.060228 4.515000 7.777509
2025-12-21 1.082217 1.328490 1.663698 2.181519 3.025924 4.511122 7.926141
2025-12-28 1.074399 1.325955 1.671755 2.213114 3.113155 4.743573 8.698470
2026-01-04 1.067410 1.324229 1.680708 2.246225 3.204899 4.994860 9.591441
2026-01-11 1.058385 1.319274 1.684618 2.271297 3.284033 5.230074 10.517047
2026-01-18 1.039721 1.300076 1.666818 2.260552 3.298078 5.331465 11.080947
2026-01-25 1.021602 1.281178 1.648845 2.248667 3.309118 5.427393 11.659168